Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida Primaries

Tomorrow are the Florida primaries. This is going to be a very big day for the candidates, well for the GOP candidates anyways. Florida is the 2nd state to lose all of its delegates for moving its primary date earlier than the DNC wanted. (Michigan was the first) So the Dems really aren't campaigning at all in Florida. They're preparing for Super Tuesday.

The GOP is going crazy for Florida. Right now it is a statistical dead heat for McCain and Romney. Both are riding high after some big wins in earlier primaries. Guliani, the GOP frontrunner is lagging behind in 3rd-4th place. Rather than spend time and money in the early states, Guliani broke from tradition and gambled on the larger states later on in the race. It appears from the polls that the plan has backfired. He hasn't been in the media nearly as much as McCain or Romney who received some free advertising from their respective wins.

Will Rudy drop out if he performs poorly in Florida? Probably.... he took a gamble and it will either break or make him. I don't think he has the money to compete in Super Tuesday states without a serious win in Florida. So who does that benefit? Well it's hard to say because Rudy pulls voters from both the central party goers and medium-hardcore Repubs. So expect both McCain and Mitt to get some help if he flounders and bails. With Fred out of the race now, I'm backing Romney. I'll explain why in another post.

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